Bitcoin seems about to move on a major price movement, and data indicates that volatility can return significantly. With the stagnation of Bitcoin over the past few weeks, let's analyze the main indicators to understand the potential scale and the direction of the next step.
Volatility
Wonderful place to start is Bitcoin fluctuationWhich follows the movement of prices and fluctuation over time. By isolating last year data and focusing on weekly fluctuations, we note that the price of Bitcoin recently was relatively flat, hovering in a range of $ 90,000. This prolonged side procedure has led to a significant decrease in volatility, which means that Bitcoin suffers from some of the most stable price behaviors in modern history.
Historically, these low fluctuations levels are rare and tend to be short -term. When looking at the previous cases where the fluctuation was low, Bitcoin followed large price movements:
A march of $ 50,000 to the highest level ever at $ 74,000.
A decrease from $ 66,000 to $ 55,000, followed by another increase to $ 68,000.
The recession period is about 60,000 dollars before an increase to $ 100,000, which is its highest level ever.
Every time the fluctuation decreases to this level, Bitcoin has seen a move of at least 20 to 30 %, if not more, in the following weeks.
Bolinger domains
For more emphasis on this, the Bollinger Bands, which is a tool that measures fluctuation by tracking the price deviation from the moving average, also indicates that Bitcoin wrapped in a large movement. The quarterly ranges are currently in their most narrow levels since 2012, which means that price pressure is at the extreme. The last time this happened, Bitcoin has witnessed a 200 % price increase within weeks.
Study the previous incidents of similar Bollinger Band settings, we find:
2018: 50 % decrease from $ 6000 to $ 3000.
2020: The outbreak of $ 9,000 to 12,000 dollars, as the great center was established in the end to 40,000 dollars.
2023: A slow accumulation stage is about $ 25,000 before a quick jump to $ 32,000.
Possible direction
Understanding the direction is more difficult than predicting volatility, but we have evidence. One strong indicator is The US dollar power index (DXY) yoyThat has been historically transferred to Bitcoin. Recently, the DXY was gathering severely, but Bitcoin had held it. This indicates that Bitcoin has an essential strength, even in the total favorable circumstances.
In addition, political factors may play a role. Historically, when Donald Trump took office in 2017, DXY decreased, and Bitcoin saw a huge bull from $ 1,000 to $ 20,000. With a similar setting that is likely to be discovered in 2025, we may see a repetition of this dynamic.
ETF flows
Moreover, Bitcoin ETF flowsAnd an agent of institutional demand, slowly slowed during this period of low fluctuations. This indicates that the main players are waiting for a certain outbreak before adding their sites. Once the fluctuations return, we can see a renewed interest in institutions, and the highest bitcoin leadership.
conclusion
Bitcoin fluctuations at one of its lowest levels in history, and these conditions have not last long. When this fluctuation presses a lot, it paves the way for an explosive move. The data indicates that the collapse is imminent, but whether it tends up or down depends on the conditions of macroeconomics, investor morale, and institutional flows.
For more detailed bitcoin analysis and access to advanced features such as live plans, personal indicators, and in -depth industry reports, check Bitcoin Pro magazine.
Slip: This article is for media purposes only and should not be considered a financial advice. Always perform your research before making any investment decisions.
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