Farage puts 25% odds on becoming Prime Minister within four years

Nigel Farage, leader of the UK’s Reform Party, has claimed there is a 20-25% chance he will become prime minister in the next four years – perhaps before Donald Trump leaves the White House in January – if economic turmoil leads to a snap election.

Farage made the comments in a Channel 5 News interview with Dan Walker, suggesting that another market-driven crisis like the one that erupted under Liz Truss as Prime Minister could bring down the current government.

“A run on the markets can do that,” Farage said, comparing it to past political turmoil. “I wouldn’t put it at more than 20%, or 25%, but it is possible.”

Although Farage’s estimates appear high, seasoned political commentators have explored scenarios in which the Conservative Party disintegrates, paving the way for the UK’s Reform Party to take its place. Writing on Substack, Peter Kellner, the former head of YouGov, outlined a potential strategy for Farage, describing it as having “an outside chance of working – nothing more”. Another analyst, Sam Freedman, wondered whether Reform could “kill the Conservative Party” entirely, but warned that it would require a continued rise in Reform’s poll numbers, a decisive shift in support from Tory donors and MPs, and success in Ultimately in the next general election. Elections – likely to be in 2028 or 2029.

Friedman added that under the UK’s majoritarian electoral system, two right-leaning parties could not survive in the long term in direct competition, noting: “A ‘winner-takes-all’ system… will always end up crushing one party.” one”. Or merger.”

However, doubts remain about whether the support Farage needs will come. The Conservative Party has proven resilient to division in the past, and Friedman cites potential negative perceptions of Farage’s association with figures like Elon Musk as an ongoing obstacle. However, for now, Farage is talking about his chances – and the latest pro-reform polls in the UK suggest Westminster should not sack him entirely.