Germany’s Political Frontlines Shift to Downtrodden Rust Belt

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(Bloomberg) — At the Hambach open pit mine on the edge of Germany’s former industrial heartland, the ground shakes as a giant excavator with wheels heavier than the Eiffel Tower carves through the landscape, extracting brown coal to power factories like a cluster of paper mills in nearby Düren.

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In this small city of 90,000, 40 kilometers west of Cologne, Germany’s challenges collide, and in once-prosperous places like Düren, the battle for Germany’s future is raging. Political campaigning ahead of snap elections scheduled for February 23 will begin in earnest this weekend when the ruling Social Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany party – a rising force in the region – hold party conferences.

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“There is a lot of uncertainty,” said Helgi Peter Herwegen, a local official with the IGBCE union, which represents miners and paperworkers and was once a powerful voice in the region. “Conversations with our members are difficult.”

From energy insecurity to faltering industrialization, Doreen is at the heart of the structural changes rocking Europe’s largest economy. As domestic fossil fuels like those in Hambach are phased out, blue-collar workers worry about whether their jobs are secure while employers struggle to compete with rivals from the United States and China.

The effects of Germany’s industrial slowdown have been difficult to ignore in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state. Large employers such as Thyssenkrupp AG and Ford Motor Co are cutting staff, while years of tepid policy programs and the failure of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government have further undermined confidence.

The AfD, which is running second in national opinion polls, is tapping into fears in communities like Düren, which will bear the brunt of Germany’s net-zero emissions ambitions, and where the party’s call to abandon international climate agreements is reverberating. Even if these moves are legally and economically implausible, the prospect of more of the same from the major parties is unattractive to anxious locals.

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In Duren, the Alternative for Germany party received more than 4,000 votes in the European elections last June, coming just 132 votes short of overtaking Schulz’s Social Democratic Party – which was once the reliable voice of the working class.

While the shift to the right is most pronounced in the former communist east, the severe headwinds for the center-left are evident in the loss of the SPD and Greens to populist parties, including the new left-leaning BSW, across Germany.

In North Rhine-Westphalia, cities such as Duisburg – where steelmaker ThyssenKrupp is cutting 11,000 jobs – and Bochum – still reeling from the closure of an Opel car plant in 2014 – have become targets for the AfD, as it seeks to consolidate its base in West. Germany.

“People in these cities are waking up to the damage caused by politicians,” said Christian Loos, the AfD’s economic spokesman in the region. As the party seeks to dominate the state by the end of the decade, it seeks to weaken the influence of organized labor. “Union leaders support climate policies and no longer defend the interests of their members,” he said.

Voter frustration has different sources in Germany. In the East, this stems from reunification, feelings of backwardness exacerbated by the influx of migrants. Concern in the West comes from threats to once-comfortable living standards due to declining competitiveness, and environmental initiatives have become a target since they are seen as hurting local businesses.

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“The AfD is capitalizing on anxiety in areas where industries are struggling to adapt,” said Jens Sodekom, professor of international economics at Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf. This trend is expected to intensify as Germany accelerates emissions cuts this decade to meet climate goals. “For anxious voters, the AfD offers a radically different path.”

In Duren, economic recovery seems distant, and the paper mill in Schöllershammer is a symbol of local struggles.

It previously relied on three weekly shipments of briquettes from a producer near the Hambach mine. After Angela Merkel’s administration approved its plans in 2019 to phase out coal, the plant installed a gas-fired furnace to generate the steam it needed for production. This reliability did not last long.

Russia’s moves to cut off gas supplies after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine have sent gas prices soaring and thrown the Schullershammer into crisis. The plant has adapted by burning its own production waste to reduce energy costs, but challenges remain. European regulations and a stagnant economy cause more headaches.

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Deteriorating job opportunities are particularly alienating young Germans, and the AfD targets this group through social media, such as TikTok. In a recent video, Martin Vincentz, 38, head of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) faction in the North Rhine-Westphalia regional parliament, called on the next generation to reject the status quo and “complete political change in this country.”

“We notice that a lot of communication is done via social media and less directly in companies,” said Matthias Durbaum, a Düren-born employee representative on the supervisory board of utility company RWE AG, referring to the declining influence of trade unions on politics. Affiliation.

The party sounded the alarm about promoting the deportation of migrants and called on Germany to leave the euro. Following xenophobic comments and prominent figures’ use of banned Nazi slogans, three states in the east have been labeled as right-wing extremists and placed under surveillance by the local intelligence service.

In Doreen, Ernst Müller and his wife Yvonne try to prevent young people from drifting toward ethnic nationalism. The former European middleweight boxer runs a gym and trains a few dozen teenagers, offering encouragement and a sense of purpose to kids from different backgrounds.

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Sitting in his office filled with photos and memorabilia from his heyday in the late 1970s, Mueller proudly points to the award he received from the city for helping integrate non-German youth into the community. The couple say Germany needs to pull together to get out of its crisis.

“We are like a family here,” Yvonne said, stressing the club’s stance against the far-right influences that are evident in some mixed martial arts clubs across Europe and the United States. “We take care of each other and help each other through difficult times. We are so proud of what these kids continue to achieve.”

At City Hall, Mayor Frank Peter Ulrich tries to draw solace from history. In the Social Democrat’s office, a mural highlights the catastrophic landmarks from the Thirty Years’ War to World War II, when advancing Allied forces flattened the city to avoid bloody house-to-house fighting. The community bounced back every time.

Although there is less drama now, he admits that delays in receiving funds to help facilitate the region’s transition away from coal have deepened public doubts after cities were evacuated and parts of a 12,000-year-old forest were cleared for coal extraction.

“People have given up their homes to boost the economy,” Ulrich said, referring to villages that were destroyed for mining expansion. “The deal was stable jobs and development. This trust is eroding.”

– With assistance from Tom Fevrier.

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