Stocks’ FOMO Takes a Break From US as Momentum Moves Overseas

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(Bloomberg) – The animal lives that sent the stock market in the United States fly over the past two years are moving globally – a trend that some market positives say it may just start.

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After more than 50 % rising in 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 index has been significantly since US President Donald Trump's inauguration. Hot trade is now moving abroad, as investors accumulate to European and Asian stocks, ignoring the threats of definitions, commercial wars and violent military conflicts.

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Since Trump took office directly, the Stoxx EUROPE 600 has increased by 5.8 %, while the Dragon Golden Dragon index, which tracks the companies listed in the United States that carry out business in China, increased by 18 %. On the contrary, the S&P 500 only gained 0.3 % in this period-with the performance of performance on Friday by 1.7 % on Friday.

“Since the feelings and sites in the United States were very extreme for a long time, this reflection can go a long way,” said Brad Conger, who oversees about 20 billion dollars as head of investment in Hurtal Callen.

Konger was martyred as a poll of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. In late January, which found that the global governor managers believe in an overwhelming majority that American stocks will spread the best returns in 2025. European weight has been increased since mid -2014 and Chinese stocks since late last year.

For merchants who do the same, the logic is clear and direct. The shares outside the United States have lost many gains in the past two years and are now relatively cheap with the stability of the global economic view. At the same time, the uncertainty about customs tariffs has been mainly affected by the aid in the United States, and the power of the dollar faded.

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Meanwhile, the excitement about starting Chinese artificial intelligence has led to a reconsideration of sharp prices in American stocks, and has made China technical shares more attractive in the short term. Combating, all of these forces shake the “American” American “thesis, which is expected to constantly outperform the American markets.

“This shift has the ability to be secular, not periodic,” said Mark Hackket, the chief strategy expert in the market in NATODIDE Management Group, who has about $ 75 billion of management assets. “The other time was the only registered time to have a large -scale gap and evaluation between local and international markets during the technology bubble. When the shift came after that, it was exciting and extended.”

Global stocks in the United States have left a large period over the past two years, with Stoxx 600 20 % and Golden Dragon only increased, even with S&P 500 % 53 %. Even after catching this year, the average price for European scale profits is 14 years old, less than the S&P 500 index at 22.

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Follow the money

Money flows indicate a long runway in front of non -American stocks. He found an analysis of JPMorgan Chase & Co. The exclusion of Chinese stocks, the relative missing performance of this year of American stocks remains only 10 % to 20 % reflection on the subject of the United States investment, which was ruled from April 2023 until the end of last year. Citigroup said that the location has turned “greatly” in favor of Europe, so that investors are now more upward in Europe than they are in the United States.

The wage season in the next United States in March will be the other opposite wind for the S&P 500 season. The purchase of shares from retail traders-a major force in the American markets-can slow down. In fact, Scott Robner of Goldman said last week that he had to “monitor the correction” to measure stocks as both buyers are running for retail and institutions.

Christopher Murphy, co -chair of the derivative strategy of the Susquehanna International Group, said that the rush to German stocks or the broader European stocks indicates that investors are driven by fear of losing it. He pointed out that the implicit fluctuations in both the DAX index in Germany and the Euro Stoxx 50 index have risen sharply in recent weeks.

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Murphy added: “It is very rare to see the mobilization index and volatility to a large extent.”

Very fast?

But there are basics that support this step. In addition to the late assessments in Europe, interest rate expectations are more benign, while corporate profits were flexible. The arising optimism about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine is also, as well as expectations for increasing spending to help maintain any peace, which helped European defense companies in particular.

For some, the stampede in Europe and China has been dismantled so much that it may be due to a temporary stop. The momentum of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises indicator indicates that they have risen very quickly, which may indicate a reflection on the horizon, if not imminent.

Others still see many reasons for maintaining betting on the United States, even with no S&P 500 near its highest levels ever.

“The United States has major structural benefits,” said stock experts at Bank of America, led by Savita Supraman, noting its independence in energy, the innate workforce, and the state of the dollar's backup.

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The strategists said that the American technology industry is also leading, although the launch of Deepseek has challenged the idea of ​​the United States's dominance in this field.

Even a little fluctuation in confidence in the superiority in the United States, technology giants can go a long way, given their great impact on the country's stock market. While the tide flows in the other direction, each worker adds.

“The artificial intelligence narration was justified in favor of extreme stunning in American stocks,” said Hurtal Callen Konger. “It was not possible for non -American stocks that there was an amendment to the expectations of artificial intelligence in the United States.”

– With the help of Natalia Kneazevich, Jessica Menton, Yakin Shen, Sajarica Gainingani and Epsik Fishnoui.

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