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The market finds itself at a pivotal crossroads as US President Donald Trump has not issued an executive order related to cryptocurrencies or the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) yet. Popular cryptocurrency analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has It flared up again Discussion via X, questioning whether this reserve has already been “priced in” by current market valuations.
Has Trump’s Bitcoin reserves been priced out?
The concept of “pricing” an asset refers to the idea that all known information about a potential event is already reflected in its current price. MacroScope draws parallels between the current speculation surrounding SBR and the period leading up to the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“In some ways, the discussion about the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve mirrors the EIF discussion we saw previously,” Macroscope said subscriber On
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MacroScope’s analysis is rooted in his observations before the advent of Bitcoin ETFs. During that period, he asserted that ETFs would spur a new wave of investing by making Bitcoin more accessible to a wider range of investors. “I posted the following at BTC 44k, a few days before the ETFs started trading,” he recalls.
The introduction of ETFs has already made Bitcoin more accessible, attracting significant institutional and retail interest. MacroScope believes a similar, albeit more impactful, scenario could unfold with SBR. Unlike ETFs, which primarily promote liquidity and accessibility, an SBR would signal a strong government endorsement of Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, a Bitcoin reserve would expand “the pool of participants, certainly in terms of available capital.” This will have major global implications. (It) will be because of the arms race mentality that will develop. (…) ETFs have influenced the price of Bitcoin through their ease of access. He added that the US strategic reserve will affect the price through the global psychological state and urgency.
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MacroScope pointed to a post from the previous year to support its argument: “It is impossible for something to be ‘priced’ if a significant amount of capital has not literally been accessed yet. Yes, currently qualified speculators with their available capital can buy in before the event. But that is the extreme Where any “pricing” could go if the number of participants was about to expand dramatically.
Nick Moran, founder and CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope’s assertions. “The macroscope, I’ve mastered that,” Moran confirmed. She detailed the possibility of “large-scale SBR” under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting that such a move would set a precedent for other countries to follow.
Political support, although still in its early stages, appears promising. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the Bitcoin Act, recently said on a podcast: “Wouldn’t it be fun if the United States bought Bitcoin and it scares China and Russia so they start buying Bitcoin and we have an arms race on Bitcoin instead of an arms race.” “.
Adding to the optimism, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., shared: And the Trump campaign’s lead advisor on crypto assets, his predictions for X following President Trump’s pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “I continue to expect offshore offices dedicated to Bitcoin + crypto in the coming days,” Bailey stated, hinting at upcoming executive orders that could formalize the creation of the SBR. “I also fully expect the President to meet the SBR requirements in his first 100 days,” he further predicted.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $102,295.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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